====================================================================================== defendooor: 1685 oyun · eşik n>=25 · * = 95% güvenle sıfırdan farklı ====================================================================================== ====================================================================================== 1. REPERTUVAR — İLK HAMLELER ====================================================================================== BEYAZ — kendi 1. hamlesi (843 oyun) n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.d4 824 398/408/ 18 49.4% 50.7% -10.6 1.e4 17 11/ 6/ 0 64.7% 50.2% +2.5 SİYAH — rakibin 1. hamlesi (842 oyun) n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.e4 karşısında 539 255/268/ 16 48.8% 50.0% -6.3 1.d4 karşısında 220 109/104/ 7 51.1% 50.9% +0.6 1.c4 karşısında 24 10/ 14/ 0 41.7% 50.4% -2.1 1.Nf3 karşısında 23 16/ 6/ 1 71.7% 50.7% +4.8 * 1.b3 karşısında 10 4/ 6/ 0 40.0% 49.9% -1.0 1.e3 karşısında 6 4/ 2/ 0 66.7% 57.7% +0.5 1.g4 karşısında 5 4/ 1/ 0 80.0% 49.2% +1.5 1.g3 karşısında 5 1/ 3/ 1 30.0% 50.0% -1.0 SİYAH — 1.e4 karşısında verdiği cevap n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.e4 e5 473 223/235/ 15 48.7% 50.1% -6.5 1.e4 d6 56 26/ 29/ 1 47.3% 48.8% -0.8 SİYAH — 1.d4 karşısında verdiği cevap n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.d4 e5 118 55/ 60/ 3 47.9% 50.8% -3.4 1.d4 d5 64 32/ 29/ 3 52.3% 50.9% +0.9 1.d4 d6 29 17/ 11/ 1 60.3% 52.0% +2.4 SİYAH — 1.c4 karşısında verdiği cevap n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.c4 e5 21 10/ 11/ 0 47.6% 50.6% -0.6 SİYAH — 1.Nf3 karşısında verdiği cevap n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.Nf3 e5 13 9/ 3/ 1 73.1% 51.6% +2.8 ====================================================================================== 2. AÇILIŞ ADLARI ====================================================================================== BEYAZ — en çok oynadıkları (aile) n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Queens Gambit Declined 216 106/102/ 8 50.9% 51.3% -0.8 Queens Gambit Accepted 93 47/ 42/ 4 52.7% 51.8% +0.8 Queens Pawn Opening 68 35/ 33/ 0 51.5% 49.6% +1.3 Kings Indian Defense 65 31/ 34/ 0 47.7% 49.7% -1.3 Englund Gambit 63 24/ 38/ 1 38.9% 51.0% -7.7 * Slav Defense 61 28/ 31/ 2 47.5% 50.2% -1.6 Nimzo Indian Defense 31 17/ 14/ 0 54.8% 49.8% +1.6 Modern Defense 31 11/ 19/ 1 37.1% 50.0% -4.0 English Opening 27 16/ 11/ 0 59.3% 49.9% +2.5 BEYAZ — Elo beklentisine göre en iyi / en kötü n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark English Opening 27 16/ 11/ 0 59.3% 49.9% +2.5 Nimzo Indian Defense 31 17/ 14/ 0 54.8% 49.8% +1.6 Queens Pawn Opening 68 35/ 33/ 0 51.5% 49.6% +1.3 Queens Gambit Accepted 93 47/ 42/ 4 52.7% 51.8% +0.8 Queens Gambit Declined 216 106/102/ 8 50.9% 51.3% -0.8 Kings Indian Defense 65 31/ 34/ 0 47.7% 49.7% -1.3 Slav Defense 61 28/ 31/ 2 47.5% 50.2% -1.6 Englund Gambit 63 24/ 38/ 1 38.9% 51.0% -7.7 * Modern Defense 31 11/ 19/ 1 37.1% 50.0% -4.0 SİYAH — en çok oynadıkları (aile) n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Petrovs Defense 242 123/111/ 8 52.5% 49.7% +6.7 Englund Gambit 112 53/ 56/ 3 48.7% 50.9% -2.5 Bishops Opening 48 27/ 20/ 1 57.3% 49.2% +3.9 Pirc Defense 42 19/ 22/ 1 46.4% 49.7% -1.4 Vienna Game 39 18/ 20/ 1 47.4% 49.7% -0.9 Queens Pawn Opening 37 16/ 19/ 2 45.9% 49.9% -1.5 Kings Pawn Opening 37 18/ 17/ 2 51.4% 53.0% -0.6 Giuoco Piano Game 34 16/ 18/ 0 47.1% 51.3% -1.5 Modern Defense 28 17/ 11/ 0 60.7% 49.6% +3.1 English Opening 28 13/ 15/ 0 46.4% 50.3% -1.1 SİYAH — Elo beklentisine göre en iyi / en kötü n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Modern Defense 28 17/ 11/ 0 60.7% 49.6% +3.1 Bishops Opening 48 27/ 20/ 1 57.3% 49.2% +3.9 Petrovs Defense 242 123/111/ 8 52.5% 49.7% +6.7 Kings Pawn Opening 37 18/ 17/ 2 51.4% 53.0% -0.6 Englund Gambit 112 53/ 56/ 3 48.7% 50.9% -2.5 Vienna Game 39 18/ 20/ 1 47.4% 49.7% -0.9 Pirc Defense 42 19/ 22/ 1 46.4% 49.7% -1.4 English Opening 28 13/ 15/ 0 46.4% 50.3% -1.1 Queens Pawn Opening 37 16/ 19/ 2 45.9% 49.9% -1.5 Giuoco Piano Game 34 16/ 18/ 0 47.1% 51.3% -1.5 BEYAZ — tam varyant adı (n>=30) n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Slav Defense 31 14/ 16/ 1 46.8% 51.3% -1.4 Queens Gambit Declined Baltic Defe 30 12/ 17/ 1 41.7% 48.6% -2.1 Englund Gambit 63 24/ 38/ 1 38.9% 51.0% -7.7 * SİYAH — tam varyant adı (n>=30) n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Petrovs Defense Classical Variatio 83 47/ 32/ 4 59.0% 49.6% +7.8 Bishops Opening Berlin Defense 35 20/ 14/ 1 58.6% 49.2% +3.3 Petrovs Defense 56 31/ 24/ 1 56.2% 50.3% +3.3 Englund Gambit 112 53/ 56/ 3 48.7% 50.9% -2.5 Petrovs Defense Three Knights Game 93 39/ 51/ 3 43.5% 49.3% -5.4 ====================================================================================== 3. 1.d4 KARŞISINDA — DETAY ====================================================================================== toplam 220 oyun · 51.1% (beklenti 50.9%) · +0.6 puan · ort. rakip 1059 varyant adına göre n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Englund Gambit 112 53/ 56/ 3 48.7% 50.9% -2.5 Modern Defense 10 8/ 2/ 0 80.0% 53.8% +2.6 Queens Pawn Opening 10 3/ 7/ 0 30.0% 47.6% -1.8 ilk 3 hamle dizisi n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark 1.d4 e5 2.dxe5 f6 3.exf6 Nxf6 53 22/ 29/ 2 43.4% 50.3% -3.7 1.d4 e5 2.dxe5 f6 3.Nf3 Nc6 13 6/ 7/ 0 46.2% 52.1% -0.8 ====================================================================================== 5. AÇILIŞ BAŞINA OYUN UZUNLUĞU / BİTİŞ ŞEKLİ ====================================================================================== açılış n hamle süre% mat/tesl% B Vienna Game 39 22 10% 85% B Petrovs Defense 242 24 6% 90% B Giuoco Piano Game 34 26 9% 88% W Nimzo Indian Defense 31 26 6% 84% W Queens Pawn Opening 68 26 15% 79% W English Opening 27 26 15% 81% W Kings Indian Defense 65 26 5% 95% W Queens Gambit Accepted 93 26 14% 83% B Englund Gambit 112 26 12% 84% B Kings Pawn Opening 37 26 11% 84% B Queens Pawn Opening 37 26 11% 89% W Englund Gambit 63 27 13% 87% B Modern Defense 28 28 11% 86% B Pirc Defense 42 28 7% 86% W Queens Gambit Declined 216 28 12% 82% W Slav Defense 61 28 7% 92% B Bishops Opening 48 30 4% 88% B English Opening 28 32 25% 75% W Modern Defense 31 32 10% 84% ====================================================================================== 6. SON 12 AY (866 oyun, 2025-08-07 sonrası) ====================================================================================== BEYAZ — son dönem n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Queens Gambit Declined 135 68/ 64/ 3 51.5% 51.0% +0.7 Kings Indian Defense 44 23/ 21/ 0 52.3% 50.4% +0.8 Queens Gambit Accepted 39 20/ 16/ 3 55.1% 52.1% +1.2 Englund Gambit 35 14/ 20/ 1 41.4% 49.5% -2.8 Slav Defense 30 12/ 17/ 1 41.7% 49.9% -2.5 Queens Pawn Opening 26 15/ 11/ 0 57.7% 50.3% +1.9 Nimzo Indian Defense 16 11/ 5/ 0 68.8% 51.6% +2.7 English Opening 16 11/ 5/ 0 68.8% 51.0% +2.8 Dutch Defense 13 7/ 5/ 1 57.7% 50.4% +0.9 SİYAH — son dönem n W/ L/ D gerçek bekl. fark Petrovs Defense 125 64/ 58/ 3 52.4% 49.8% +3.3 Englund Gambit 55 23/ 31/ 1 42.7% 50.9% -4.5 Bishops Opening 28 15/ 13/ 0 53.6% 50.1% +1.0 Queens Pawn Opening 28 13/ 14/ 1 48.2% 51.3% -0.9 Kings Pawn Opening 23 10/ 11/ 2 47.8% 53.0% -1.2 English Opening 20 9/ 11/ 0 45.0% 49.8% -1.0 Giuoco Piano Game 19 10/ 9/ 0 52.6% 53.1% -0.1 Vienna Game 18 9/ 9/ 0 50.0% 48.7% +0.2 Queens Gambit Declined 18 9/ 8/ 1 52.8% 51.5% +0.2 ====================================================================================== 7. AÇILIŞTA HARCANAN SÜRE (10. hamlede kalan) ====================================================================================== açılış n 10.hamle skor B Queens Pawn Opening 35 161s 48.6% B Vienna Game 38 161s 46.1% W Englund Gambit 62 164s 39.5% B Bishops Opening 44 165s 53.4% B Petrovs Defense 217 166s 49.3% B Kings Pawn Opening 34 166s 51.5% W Queens Gambit Accepted 89 167s 50.6% B Giuoco Piano Game 33 167s 48.5% B English Opening 28 168s 46.4% W Queens Pawn Opening 66 168s 51.5% W English Opening 27 168s 59.3% B Englund Gambit 104 169s 47.6% W Modern Defense 30 170s 35.0% W Queens Gambit Declined 206 171s 50.0% W Nimzo Indian Defense 31 173s 54.8% W Slav Defense 60 174s 46.7% B Pirc Defense 41 174s 45.1% B Modern Defense 28 176s 60.7% W Kings Indian Defense 65 176s 47.7%